First and foremost this post will not be about either man running for president. Nor will it be about their running mates. It also will not be about policy or who I think should win.
This election is one of the most interesting and history making ever. We have one major party with a mixed race candidate that most identify as black. The other party has a woman running in the number two spot. No matter who wins, history will be made. On the issues side, the economy is hurting and gas prices are through the roof. We are at war and still are in the cross hairs of terrorists around the world. Both candidates have fairly distinct approaches to these issues and are supported well by their bases. We've seen the polls fluctuate the past couple of months with both men in the lead at one time or another but neither really get too far past the margin of error. And this leads me to that elephant:
Barack Obama and his racial heritage.
Now, I am not saying that people are ignoring the history that was made with his nomination. And surely those of us who long for racial reconciliation here in the US are not missing the huge step we would take if he was our first black president. I think these things have been out in front from the beginning. The positives have been more than accentuated. What I am saying is the following.
No one wants to look at these "polls" and admit that one of the ways they may be horribly skewed is by what many call the Bradley, or Wilder Effect. From Wikipedia:
The term Bradley effect, less commonly called[1] the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.[2][3][4] Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.[5]
Now, I am not saying that this is happening or even that the "effect' is real. (let's please not debate "the effect") But I am willing to admit it is a possibility and I am greatly saddened by it. I disagree with many of Obama's stances on the issues, but for him to lose the election because people are still so prejudiced is disgusting to me.
I was over at the Reconciliation Blog and Edward Gilbreath points to this article. Here is how it starts:
Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent," responsible for their own troubles.
The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.
Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He's an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation's oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.
We all know that polls are not always the best scientific measure, but 40%? I shouldn't be shocked by that number but I am. It's disgusting. And if we assume that some people didn't want to be honest on this one could it be higher?
What I don't understand is why no one is REALLY talking about this. Even many of those who support Obama aren't mentioning it. It truly is the elephant in the room it seems. It is a very real possibility that Obama could lose the election because of his racial heritage. Again, I disagree with him on many many issues, but my own kids share his biracial heritage. If he loses, I want to see him lose on policy, not skin color.
I think this is worth exposing. For a black man in America to come so far only to be shot down yet again by bigots and racists is disheartening.
I also think it is worth having the discussion about this now. Because if Obama loses, we will definitely be having it later. Of course, if we talk about it now, Obama would be more likely to lose. At the least, he wouldn't find any help to his campaign from the discussion. That's why that elephant will continue to be ignored I think.
Representative Walter B. Jones Leads G.O.P. Effort to Withdraw Forces From Afghanistan - NYTimes.com
I could not agree more with Rep. Jones when he says:
This war needs to end. We need to get the out of there. I applaud a conservative for taking this stand and for reminding everyone that we jsut can't police the world anymore. Our economy has been chaotic for years now and all the while we are pumping more money into wars that can't actually be won and that are needlessly getting our young men and women killed or scarred for life.
Conservatives and war supporters, I urge you to think on this and speak out. Put away the country songs that pull at your heart strings and make you want to kick someone's ass. We've fought the good fight against terror here at home and have been winning for 10 years now. We have no need to be in foreign countries shedding blood. This isn't a freedom issue, so drop that too. Just think long and hard, weight all the negatives, and see if you come to same conclusion on this.
If you do come to the conclusion that we need to be there, then please tell someone in decision making capacities what the endgame there needs to be. Because right now, I haven't heard one from the those who support this useless war.
via www.nytimes.com
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